TASK 1 SOFTSKILL BUSINESS ENGLISH 2

SIMPATI CARD SALES EARLY PREDICTION IN SIMPATINDO MULTIMEDIA

PENGGILINGAN  CAKUNG BRANCH EAST JAKARTA

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

TITLE PAGE i

Originality STATEMENT AND PUBLICATION ii

ENDORSEMENT SHEET iii

ABSTRACT iv

INTRODUCTION v

TABLE OF CONTENTS vii

LIST OF TABLES ix

LIST OF FIGURES x

INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Background 1

1.2 Formulation and Limitations 2

1.3 Objective 2

1.4 Benefits Research 3

1.4.1 Academic Benefits 3

1.4.2 Practical Benefits 3

1.5 Research Methods 3

1.5.1 ObjekPenelitian 3

1.5.2 Variable Data 3

1.5.3 Data Collection Methods 3

1.5.4 Analysis Tools Used 4

CHAPTER II LITERATURE REVIEW 5

2.1 Framework Theory 5

2.1.1 Definitions Forecasting 5

2.1.2 Definition of Sales 5

2.1.3 DefinisiRamalanPenjualan 5

Forecasting 2.1.4 Time Horizon 6

2.1.5 TipePeramalan 7

2.1.6 ProsesPeramalan 8

2.1.7 Mechanical-teknikPeramalan 10

2.2 KajianPenelitianSejenis 15

2.3 AlatAnalisis 16

BABIII METHODS 20

3.1 Object Research 20

3.2 Data / Variable 20

3.3 Data Collection Methods 20

3.4 Analysis Tools Used 20

CHAPTER IV DISCUSSION 23

4.1 Data and Research Object Profile 23

4.1.1 Company SejarahSingkat 23

4.1.2 Company StrukturOrganisasi 24

4.2 PembahasandanData Sales Results 25

4.3 PerhitunganPeramalanHasilPenelitian 28

4.3.1 Method of Moving Average 28

4.3.2 Method of Weight Moving Average 33

4.3.3 Exponential Smoothing Methods 38

4.4 RangkumanHasilPerhitungan 42

CLOSING CHAPTER V 45

5.1 Conclusion 45

5.2 Suggestions 46

REFERENCES 47

ATTACHMENT

ABSTRACTION

Laila Majda. 14212153

FORECASTING SALES SIMPATI CARD EARLY ON

PT. MULTIMEDIA Simpatindo BRANCH PENGGILINGAN CAKUNG EAST JAKARTA

PI. Department of Management, Faculty of Economics, University Gunadarma 2015

Keywords: Forecasting (Forcasting), Sales

(X + 47+ Appendix)

Forecasting can be conducted to determine the approximate forecasting

sales of products in the future to obtain results

effective in product sales. With the sales forecasting or

forcasting businesses considered able to analyze the market and minimize

the risk of loss of the company. In this forecasting used three methods:

Moving Average, Weight Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing. Data

used is the sale of starter packs sympathy period january 2013

until July 2015 and forecasting is done is for 1 month ahead

the month of August, 2015.

On the Moving Average method, forecasting sales that may occur

in August 2015 as many as 1843 cards and Mean Absolute Deviation

as many as 63 prime Sympathy cards. With Weight Moving Average method,

forecasting sales that may occur in August 2015 as

1856 card and Mean Absolute Deviation 40 prime Sympathy cards.

And with the exponential smoothing method, forecasting sales that may

occurred in August 2015 as many as 1405 cards and Mean Absolute

Deviation 292 prime Sympathy cards.

  Calculation results of the three methods states that the method

the better is the method Weight Moving Average Due

closer to the truth or the smallest error rate in comparison.

Bibliography (2002 - 2012)